8 June 2021
Dr. Pon Nya Mon, a Mon ethnic expert and a Ph.D graduate from Indiana University of the United States of America via Political Science specialization, is currently working as an executive director in Ethnic Nationalities Affairs Centre (ENAC).
MPM : Overviewing the entire country, in which areas have the potential for battles? Please comment.
PNM : The huge protests have risen throughout the country after the coup. The brutal crackdown of the Military Council caused most of the peaceful protestors fled to the peripheral areas. Most of the youths had arrived Karen, Kachin and Karenni States. On the other hand, the NLD members who won in the 2020 election evaded to the ethnic-controlled regions and formed the Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH) and the National Unity Government (NUG). For defense purposes, People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) have been formed under NUG. By looking these points, we can give general remark that there will be more battles across the country because almost all cities or townships have PDFs respectively. There is also PDF in our Mon State. We have the chance to know through statements or news. Therefore, there is the potential of having serious battles in urban areas. Now the battles are intensifying in Kayah State and in Sagaing Region of the Central mainland of Myanmar. To my knowledge, the battles are happening for the very first time in the Central Region of Myanmar, including such as Sagaing and Magway.
MPM : Is there any possibility of having wars in Mon State?
PNM : Until now, there is no confrontation in Mon State. I am not sure whether it is good or not. New Mon State Party (NMSP) is not fighting like Karen and Kachin armed groups therefore any PDF representing the whole Mon State cannot be found in the controlled-area of NMSP. NMSP would not accept the establishment of PDF. Any military operation cannot be made in NMSP’s controlled area without its consent. Therefore, there is no PDF in Mon Area. Nevertheless, the youths in our State (so called Gen Zee) willing to learn the military training have joined and cooperated with Karen armed groups. Later they return their places after the military training period. Their statements can be found on the news. However, the battles occupying the city as like in Kayah State have not yet taken place. I assume that there is no possibility of having huge battles in the cities of Mawlamyine District—from Mawlamyine to Yay (the southern part) as like in Kayah State and Sagaing. The reason why the possible occurrence of battles is hardly seen is due to the geographical location. Geographically, the battles can start only after crossing the NMSP’s controlled areas. They still require permission from NMSP even if they withdraw after the battle. The battles are taking place in Kayah, Kachin and Sagaing because there are at least an armed group behind them. Perhaps they have the permit to move as they wish. Therefore, the possibility of wars in the southern part of Mon State (Mawlamyine District) is relatively low. However, there might be serious wars in Thaton District, the northern part of Mon State. In particular, fighting might take place in Thaton, Bilin and Kyaikhto. The recently-formed People’s Defense Force (PDF) involves a lot of NLD supporting youths. It also includes those who do not support NLD but the amount is relatively small and most of them are NLD big fans. Since there are more NLD supporters in the northern part of Mon State, the strength of PDF might be strong enough. Moreover, the Karen armed groups are active in those regions and can provide the supply. Therefore, it is possible that Thaton PDF will become strong enough and make urban military operation with the support of Karen armed groups. However, there might have just threats in the southern Mon State, including such as bombing or throwing hand grenades and there might be no battle for occupying the cities.
Sent by
MNA
